Great in 2008? Our city in the year ahead
With: Bill Walton on the Blazers, Michelle DeCourcy on fashion and Windermere’s Brian Allen on housing. Plus takes on teens, transportation, music and politics. Thursday, January 03, 2008Tom
Hallman Jr. The Oregonian Staff
The beauty of a story like this is that few will remember predictions for Portland in 2008 — right, wrong or just plain out there.
So we’re going to have some fun.
Down below, we have experts, people who can speak with some authority and broad strokes about the upcoming year. But we’ll start with someone with a different perspective.
Leisa Refalo, 39, reads tarot cards, which some believe can reveal the future. Tarot, she says, is an Italian card game that was popular in the 1300s.
“It’s like bridge,” she says. “It fell out of favor in about 1800. About that time, mystics in Europe realized that the structure of the game looked like the mystic Tree of Life in the Jewish tradition.”
Refalo says occultists at the time redrew the cards so they would look like what they were supposed to mean. Some cards signal positive events, some negative.
“People are fascinated by tarot,” she says. “I got into it because my dad reads. He gave me my first deck.”
By profession, Refalo is a software engineer. Tarot, she says, lets her use different parts of her brain. “Readings are quite accurate,” she says. “Usually people are freaked out.”
So we set up a session and met in her Southwest Portland studio to pose five general questions about Portland and the year ahead.
Refalo shuffled the deck and waited for the first question.
Does it seem likely that Sam Adams will have a worthy opponent in the campaign to be Portland’s next mayor?
Refalo hands the cards to a visitor, who shuffles once. The cards are spread out on a table. The visitor selects three and turns them face up. The first is the Ten of Swords — also called Ruin — and shows a man on the ground with 10 swords in his back.
That’s not a good sign for Adams, who had a rough patch or two in 2007. “It means back stabbing,” she says. “More specifically, a smear campaign.” The other two cards, she says, reveal that Adams is going to have a conservative and worthy opponent for Portland’s high office.
What do people of Portland need to know about winter weather this year?
The cards are revealed: Six of Pentacles, Nine of Wands and the Lovers. “Doesn’t look like a problem to me,” she says. “There’s not a lot to worry about.” The sun, she points out, is behind the lovers in the final card.
What is the housing market going to look like this year?
The cards, Refalo says, show “abandon success,” “oppression” and “love.”
“The market looks initially awful,” she says. “But then improving. Difficulty at first, and then it gets together. If you want to be specific, I’d say that in the end of June it gets better.”
Will the Blazers have a good year?
“Wow,” Refalo says when she sees the cards that have been chosen. The Knight of Pentacles, the Chariot and the Six of Wands — also known as Victory and showing a man on horseback — all point to a great season. “No drug scandals,” she says.
What does Portland need to cultivate this year?
The cards are pulled: the World, the High Priestess and the Lovers.
“We got all the Major Arcana cards,” she says. The cards, she explains, depict powerful spiritual states, people, virtues and circumstances.
She’s impressed they showed up for this question, indicating that in 2008, Portland will take its place in the larger world and “cultivate a global consciousness, how we relate to the world.”
The High Priestess, she says, offers hope of a sense of perspective and knowledge when it comes to issues facing the city. “The Lovers give a sense that all is one,” Refalo says. “The appreciation of our differences. How we celebrate diversity.”
She stacks the cards. “It looks like the city is right on track,” she says. “It looks hopeful. All those are positive cards.”
What else can we expect in 2008? Experts in housing and fashion give their takes, by Erin Hoover Barnett. Teens clue in Tom Hallman Jr.
Bill Walton sizes up the Blazers, and a PSU associate professor looks at transportation, by Stephen Beaven. Pop music critic Luciana Lopez of The Oregonian gives her picks for the next breakout artists. And City Hall reporter James Mayer looks at the city’s political landscape.
The housing market
Brian Allen, president and owner of Windermere Cronin & Caplan Realty Group Inc., has calming news for Portland home buyers and sellers in the new year worried about the housing market slowdown.
Sellers: Yes, homes ARE still selling, if priced right. So get the big dollar signs out of your eyes, get a good analysis of comparable homes, consider your home’s condition and price accordingly.
Buyers: Yes, the buyer’s market will continue for a while, and no, you’re unlikely to lose money on your next home as long as you aren’t trying to flip it quickly.
Everyone: The mortgage industry meltdown over subprime lending may actually be a boon to Portland in 2008.
Portland is doing better than most housing markets. Metro-area homes are still appreciating, just not nearly as dramatically. The average sales price increased 2.5 percent from November 2006 to November 2007, says the Regional Multiple Listing Service.
Homes are still selling, just not as quickly. At the height of the go-go market in June 2005, the metro area had a 1.5-month inventory of single-family homes — excluding new construction. Homes, in other words, were flying off the market.
In November, that inventory was at 8.3 months, i.e., a slowdown. But consider this, says Allen: In suburban Detroit, Mich., the fall housing inventory was a whopping 82 months.
Yet calamities like the Detroit market are leading to fixes, such as lower interest rates and possible locked-in rates for some adjustable-rate mortgages at pre-balloon levels. And those fixes apply nationwide.
“We’re some of the most lucky in the country,” says Allen. “Anything they do to boost the market, we’re going to benefit from.”
Meanwhile, if you want a good deal in the new year, the biggest buyer’s market is in condos and new homes. That’s because there are a lot of them. In November, there was a 16-month supply of new condos and an 11.5-month supply of new homes, according to RMLS.
And if you’re already in a condo and feeling like you’re no longer the cat’s meow, take heart.
In the long run, Allen says, demand — especially from affluent, empty-nest baby boomers — will be strong. In South Waterfront, he says, “there’s not going to be big vast empty buildings.”
ERIN HOOVER BARNETT
The Trail Blazers
Bill Walton is high on the Blazers.
“With this team,” says Walton, a commentator for ESPN, “the sky is the limit. Red Hot and Rolling is back, and Blazers fans are standing ever so tall and proud, pumping their fists in the air and saying, ‘Yeah, I’m with those guys.’ ”
But good luck if you want to nail Walton down on predictions about the franchise he led to the ‘77 NBA title.
Will the Blazers make the playoffs? “They will contend for the playoffs,” he says. “I would like to see the Blazers make the playoffs. But that is not how I am measuring their success.”
Will Brandon Roy be on the Western Conference All-Star team? “Brandon Roy is going to the Basketball Hall of Fame,” Walton says, sidestepping the question before providing a long list of players who will make the team before Roy.
OK, will Nate McMillan be the NBA’s coach of the year? “He’s certainly a leading candidate right now,” Walton says.
Let’s see. How productive will Greg Oden be when he returns next season?
“Nothing about Greg Oden is certain until he starts playing ball again,” Walton says. “While they love to say it was a successful surgery as the guy is being wheeled out of the operating room, all that means is the insurance check cleared for the doctor.”
So can he make any predictions about the Blazers? “They’re not going to win the championship this year,” he says. “Unless 10 other teams fall completely apart.”
STEPHEN BEAVEN
The teen view
If four teenagers at Southeast Portland’s Franklin High School are any bellwether of what to expect in 2008, we can deduce this: Jessica Simpson is out, the surfer look is waning, and the presidential election will be profoundly important.
“This country is going to change,” says Chris Hammond, a 15-year-old sophomore. “The election is the number one thing that people in school are interested in.”
Taylor Ellsworth, a 17-year-old senior, nods.
“People are interested in the war in Iraq and global warming,” she says. “There are so many issues that are going to be affected by this election.”
The myth about teenagers, says Carly Caplener, a 15-year-old sophomore, is that all they’re concerned about is pop culture.
“We care,” she says. “We’re interested in more than Paris Hilton.”
“I agree,” says Diamond Zerework, a 17-year-old senior. “But I still like Paris.”
That’s the way it is with kids — interests all over the map as well as a hand on the pulse of culture and trends. Here’s a 2008 primer from kids’ point of view. Music: Underground hip-hop is on the rise. Rap that deals with money, cars and women won’t be as popular as it once was. Pop culture: Expect to hear a lot about Shia LeBeouf, a young actor who will appear in 2008’s “Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull.” The girls call the actor, who appeared in “Transformers,” a heartthrob. Stars parents will get sick of hearing about: New York, the star of an MTV reality show called “I Love New York,” and Tila Tequila, who stars in an MTV show called “A Shot of Love With Tila Tequila.” Clothes: A look sure to be popular is something they call “urban metro style,” which, in their words means “downtown dress-up but casual.” We’ll have to wait and see. Hair: The bold look for guys will be something called a “quiff,” which they say is supposed to look like a little mohawk. Tried-and-true shaggy hair will still be popular. Girls will wear their hair longer with volume.
TOM HALLMAN JR.
The music scene
You can complain that Portland lacks sunshine or large minority communities, but you can’t say we lack for music. Swing a mike stand in this town and you’ll hit a musician.
And lately PDX musicians have been breaking through to the big time with impressive frequency. The Decemberists’ 2006 album “The Crane Wife” set critics a-drooling, and albums from the Shins, Modest Mouse and Spoon all garnered best-of-2007 spots in various magazines and blogs.
But 2007 — so last year! Who’s gonna make the jump in 2008? A few looks into the crystal ball: Devin Phillips. This sax player isn’t looking just to crack the United States — he’s going international. Devin Phillips & New Orleans Straight Ahead are touring several countries in Africa through The Rhythm Road: American Music Abroad, a partnership between Jazz at Lincoln Center and the U.S. State Department.
Only six jazz quartets and four American urban music quartets were selected for the program. On the Portland side, Phillips is also the artistic director of the new Oregon Jazz Orchestra. Let’s hope that means he’ll stick around for a while yet. Liv Warfield. This soul singer’s powerhouse voice and confidently sexy stage presence have been getting her more and more attention. She’s targeting college campuses in the Southeast to build support, focusing especially on historically black colleges and universities. Still, she’s not abandoning Portland, as she’s got some local gigs lined up, too. And she’ll release a single, “Answers (Why Do You Lie),” in May. The Helio Sequence. Let’s face it: To the rest of the world, Portland is Indie Rockers “R” Us. Even that tag, though, is pretty broad. Witness this duo, which layers keyboards and guitars for a sound far beyond the hipster-rock stereotype. A new album slated for early 2008 release, “Keep Your Eyes Ahead,” should get them an even bigger audience.
LUCIANA LOPEZ
Fashion
There are the big-name designers from Donna Karan to Christian Dior and then there are the less-expensive, mass-market knockoffs. But in Portland there’s also something different: the independent design scene.
The indie scene is about homegrown individuality. In a city where people still wear Birkenstocks with socks, it also tends to be about comfort. And that’s among the themes designer Michelle DeCourcy sees continuing for 2008.
DeCourcy started designing seven years ago and hit the national radar in 2003 when jazz singer Norah Jones collected an armload of Grammies while wearing one of her dresses. The designer opened a boutique in Northwest Portland in 2004 and now has her shop in the Pearl at 916 N.W. Flanders. She’s also been a skydiver, marathon runner and ski racer and is a cancer survivor.
When sketching designs, she says, she mentally enters customers’ closets and looks for gaps. What items do women need in their daily lives that they may not even realize?
“That sporty-dressed girl who runs around here, I like to play that up in the way of comfort in what I design,” DeCourcy says. “I want you to be comfortable and sexy.”
A cornerstone of her spring line is tailored, wide-legged trousers with a higher waist and flowy blouses that tuck in. “Kind of a sporty, feminine ladylike look — a little of a ’40s spin,” she says. DeCourcy is using and expects others will favor bright color as well as blacks and whites.
Yes, says DeCourcy, a higher waist is returning. You’ll see it in trousers and jeans. That said, DeCourcy believes that slightly low-rise pants — two inches below the navel — will remain because they fit women regardless of their shape. But those impossibly low-waisted pants are outta here.
“The ultra, ultra low rise is already gone,” she says. “If you have anything like that left, please get rid of it.”
Styles that will continue in the new year include wrap dresses and shirts. And DeCourcy says that if you have anything patent leather, anything with an animal print — scarves, shoes — or anything with a sheen — a metallic threaded top — hold on to it.
“Don’t get rid of it even if you need to give it a rest for a while,” she says. “It’s just always there. It’s always going to be there.”
As for shoes and accessories, DeCourcy says go blue or red. Ditto for sunglasses and jewelry: The guide word is bold.
“We kind of went through that dainty charmy thing for a while,” she says, “and I think we’re seeing a resurgence of that boldness, which is nice.”
ERIN HOOVER BARNETT
Transportation
On the surface, this is an easy one, right?
Light-rail and sewer construction will continue, and most of us will grumble about it.
But, according to Jennifer Dill, that’s just a bump in the road.
“I tend to take a much longer view of things and not focus on the temporary inconvenience of construction,” says Dill, an associate professor and director of the Center for Transportation Studies at Portland State University.
Since construction is expected to be complete in 2009, Dill is looking at other developments that could lead to better funding and safer streets.
First off, Dill is heartened to hear talk of the need to raise more money for transportation. Portland Commissioner Sam Adams, who is running for mayor, has proposed a $464 million funding package for the next 15 years. And Oregon Gov. Ted Kulongoski has been talking about raising gasoline taxes.
Dill is also interested in the city’s plans to make streets safer for cyclists. Transportation planners have proposed so-called bicycle boxes, which would allow cyclists to move ahead of vehicles at stoplights and help prevent crashes.
“I think that’s a good sign,” Dill says, “that this is still an innovative place.”
STEPHEN BEAVEN
Politics
Two things are for sure in Portland politics this year: We’ll elect a new mayor, and the City Council will get at least one new commissioner.
Who they’ll be is another matter.
The mayor’s office will change hands because Mayor Tom Potter opted not to run for a second term, and that prompted Commissioner Sam Adams to toss his hat in the ring. And that opened Adams’ council seat to all comers. Commissioner Randy Leonard is up for re-election and so far hasn’t attracted any serious challengers.